09 JUNE 2023

Topic 1: Goldilocks moment

Context: In its latest policy review that was unveiled recently, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI decided to maintain the status quo.

What is a goldilocks scenario?

• A Goldilocks scenario in an economy refers to an ideal situation where there is a steady growth.
• The economic growth is neither too high to trigger inflation and nor too low for a slowdown.
• In a goldilocks scenario the economy is not expanding by a huge margin with inflation or shrinking into recession.
• Features:
  • The unemployment rate in the economy is really low.
  • There is steady growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers and companies report better earnings.
  • The retail inflation and the interest rates are relatively low.
• Benefits:
  • The Goldilock scenario is good for investors as companies perform well and stocks rally.
  • If the economy is steady and not in for sudden shocks, there will be profitable business growth.
  • With low inflation levels, the central bankers may not need to go for aggressive interest rate hikes.
  • In a goldilock scenario, there is a good chance of stable policymaking and achieving price stability.
• Limitations:
  • The goldilocks phase is temporary in nature.
  • It sets in typically after an adverse shock to the economy, during the recovery and growth period.
  • Steady economic growth for any country cannot be on a sustainable long-term basis.
  • The pace of growth might quicken eventually or slow down based on the prevailing conditions.

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 Topic 2: Tropical cyclones in Indian ocean

Context: A cyclonic storm, named Biparjoy, has developed in the Arabian Sea.

How did Cyclone Biparjoy get its name and how are cyclones named?

• ‘Biparjoy’ was suggested by Bangladesh and the word means ‘disaster’ or ‘calamity’ in Bengali.
• The naming of cyclones is done by countries on a rotational basis, following certain existing guidelines.
• Worldwide, there are six regional specialised meteorological centres (RSMCs) and five regional Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) mandated for issuing advisories and naming of tropical cyclones.
• Indian Meterological Department is one of the six RSMCs to provide tropical cyclone and storm surge advisories to 13 member countries under the WMO/Economic and Social Commission for Asia-Pacific (ESCAP) Panel including:
  • Bangladesh, India, Iran, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
• RSMC, New Delhi is also mandated to name the Tropical Cyclones developing over the north Indian Ocean (NIO), including the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Arabian Sea (AS).
• So, the tropical cyclones forming over different Ocean basins are named by the concerned RSMCs & TCWCs.

The process:

• The WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones in 2000 agreed in principle to assign names to the tropical cyclones in these seas.
• This list contained names proposed by then eight member countries of WMO/ESCAP PTC, viz.:
  • Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand.
• It was expanded to include five more countries in 2018 :
  • Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
• The list of 169 cyclone names released by IMD in 2020 was provided by these countries — 13 suggestions from each of the 13 countries.
• After Bangladesh, the next cyclone will be named ‘Tej’ based on India’s suggestion.

The rules:

• The proposed name should be neutral to:
  • politics and political figures
  • religious believes,
  • cultures and
  • gender
• Name should be chosen in such a way that it does not hurt the sentiments of any group of population over the globe
• It should not be very rude and cruel in nature
• It should be short, easy to pronounce and should not be offensive to any member
• The maximum length of the name will be eight letters

Development of cyclones in the Arabian sea

• There are fewer number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea than the Bay of Bengal.
• June is one of the favourable months for the formation of cyclones in the Arabian Sea.
• What is a cyclone:
  • A cyclone is a low-pressure system that forms over warm waters.
  • Usually, a high temperature anywhere means the existence of low-pressure air, and a low temperature means high-pressure wind.
  • In fact, that is one of the main reasons why we see greater number of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal compared to Arabian Sea.
  • Bay of Bengal is slightly warmer.
• Because of climate change, the Arabian Sea side is also getting warmer, and as a result, the number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea is showing an increasing trend in the recent trend.

How cyclone is formed?

• As air warms over hotter regions, it ascends, leading to low pressure at the surface it is covering.
• When air cools in colder areas it descends, leading to high pressure at the surface.
• In a depression or low-pressure situation, the air is rising and blows in an anticlockwise direction around the low in the northern hemisphere and in a clockwise direction in the southern hemisphere.
• This is because of the Coriolis effect, a result of the earth’s rotation on its axis.
• As warm air rises and cools, water vapour condenses to form clouds and this can lead to rains.

Comparison between Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea cyclones:

• Weather systems formed over the Bay of Bengal in the peak of summer in May are among the strongest in the North Indian Ocean region.
• Warm seas present ripe conditions for the development and strengthening of cyclones and fuel these systems over the water.
• Historically, the Bay of Bengal has been known for tropical cyclones.
• But over the years there has been an increase in cyclones forming in the Arabian Sea, as well.
• An analysis of past data of cyclones over the North Indian Ocean from 1891–2020 indicates that the frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms has increased in recent years over the Arabian Sea since 1990, and remained the same over the Bay of Bengal.
• A 2021 study noted that between 1982 and 2019, a significant increasing trend in the intensity, frequency, and duration of cyclonic storms and very severe CS was observed over the Arabian Sea.

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Topic 3: The onset of the monsoon

Context: The southwest monsoon has set in over the Kerala coast after delay of few days.

What is the “onset of the monsoon”?

• The onset of the monsoon over Kerala signals the beginning of the four-month (June-September) southwest monsoon season.
• During this period India gets more than 70% of its annual rainfall.
• The onset does not mean the first rain of the season.
  • That can start happening in certain places even before the onset is declared.
• Onset is a technical expression with a specific definition and the IMD does not officially declare onset until certain prescribed conditions are met.

What are these conditions, which determine the onset of monsoon?

• The onset of the monsoon happens when there is a significant transition in the large-scale atmospheric and ocean circulations in the Indo-Pacific region.
• IMD announces the onset of the monsoon only after certain precisely defined and measurable parameters are met.
• RAINFALL:
  • The onset is declared if at least 60% of 14 designated meteorological stations in Kerala and Lakshadweep record at least 2.5 mm of rain for two consecutive days at any time after May 10.
• WIND FIELD:
  • The IMD says that the depth of westerlies should be up to 600 hectopascal in the area that is bound by the equator to 10ºN latitude, and from longitude55ºE to 80ºE.
    • The 10th parallel North passes through Kochi;
    • The area bound by the 55th and the 80th meridians East stretches from the middle of Iran to about Chennai.
• HEAT:
  • The INSAT-derived Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) value (which is a measure of the energy emitted to space by the Earth’s surface, oceans, and atmosphere) should be below 200 watt per sq m (wm2) in the area between the 5ºN and 10ºN latitudes, and 70ºE and 75ºE longitudes.

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Topic 4: Maiden India-France-UAE Maritime Partnership Exercise

Context: The first edition of India, France and UAE Maritime Partnership Exercise commenced recently in the Gulf of Oman.

Key details:

• INS Tarkash and French Ship Surcouf both with integral helicopters, French Rafale aircraft and UAE Navy Maritime Patrol Aircraft are participating in the exercise.
• The maiden exercise aims to enhance trilateral cooperation between the three navies and pave way for adopting measures towards addressing traditional and non-traditional threats in the maritime environment.
• The exercise will also enhance collaboration in ensuring safety of mercantile trade and freedom of navigation at high seas in the region.

INS Tarkash:

• INS Tarkash (F50) is the second Talwar-class frigate.
• It was built in Kaliningrad, Russia.
• It was commissioned to Indian Navy in 2012.

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Topic 5: Cyclone’s effect on monsoon onset

Context: The impact of global warming on the monsoons are manifest in its onset, withdrawal, seasonal total rainfall, and extremes. Global warming also affects the cyclones over the Indian Ocean and the typhoons over the northwestern Pacific Ocean.

Key details:

• There are cyclone formations in the pre-monsoon cyclone season, closer to the monsoon onset, arguably due to the influence of a warmer Arctic Ocean on the winds over the Arabian Sea.
• The monsoon is of course also affected by the three tropical oceans — Indian, Atlantic, and Pacific.
• The ‘atmospheric bridge’ from the Arctic and the oceanic tunnel as well as the atmospheric bridge from the Southern Ocean (a.k.a. the Antarctic Ocean).
  • A ‘bridge’ refers to two faraway regions interacting in the atmosphere while a ‘tunnel’ refers to two remote oceanic regions connecting within the ocean.

Why does a cyclone’s position matter?                                                           

• Some cyclones in the North Indian Ocean have had both positive and negative impacts on the onset of the monsoon.
• Since the circulation of winds around the cyclones is in the anticlockwise direction, the location of the cyclone is critical as far as the cyclone’s impact on the transition of the monsoon trough is concerned.
  • The monsoon trough is a low-pressure region that is a characteristic feature of the monsoons.
  • For example, if a cyclone lies further north in the Bay of Bengal, the back-winds blowing from the southwest to the northeast can pull the monsoon trough forward, and assist in the monsoon’s onset.
• One severe consequence of the anomalous anticyclones since March is that both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal have warmed by more than 1º C in the pre-monsoon season.

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Topic 6: Agni Prime

Context: Agni Prime ballistic missile successfully flight-tested by DRDO off Odisha coast

Key details:

• This was the first pre-induction night launch conducted by the users after three successful developmental trials of the missile, validating the accuracy and reliability of the system.
• The Agni-Prime will gradually replace the Agni-I (700-km) missiles in the arsenal, which also has the Prithvi-II (350-km), Agni-II (2,000-km), Agni-III (3,000-km) and Agni-4 (4,000-km) ballistic missiles.
• New features
  • Agni-Prime incorporates new propulsion systems and composite rocket motor casings as well as advanced navigation and guidance systems.
  • It is also a canister-launch system like the country’s first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the over 5,000-km Agni-V.
    • A canister-launch missile (with the warhead already mated with the missile) gives the armed forces the requisite operational flexibility to store it for long periods, swiftly transport it through rail or road when required, and fire it from wherever they want.
• Significance:
  • Along with Agni-V, the new missile would provide India with stronger deterrence against both China and Pakistan.
  • While Agni-V brings all of China within its strike range, Agni-P seems to have been developed keeping Pakistan in mind.

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Topic 7: National Exit Test

Context: The Union Health Ministry announced that the National Exit Test (NExT) will be held from 2024.

Key details:

• NExT will replace the final-year MBBS examination and the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test-Postgraduate (NEET-PG).
• It will act as the test for registration for doctors and admission to medical postgraduate courses.
• Overseas students, as well as students who have received their medical degrees from NMC-approved medical institutions, both, have to qualify for the National Exit Test.
• Aim:
  • NExT aims to ensure that all doctors have a minimum level of knowledge and competency by improving India’s healthcare quality.
  • To provide consistency nationwide in the summative evaluation by delivering training for a medical graduate with minimum common education standards.
• Eligibility:
  • Any final-year student who has pursued a medical degree either from Indian University or abroad, or those who seek admission to Postgraduate medical courses, can apply for the exam.
  • The exam is valid for all medical institutes, including AIIMS.
• Who conducts the exams?
  • The National Medical Commission is the implementing body, whereas the exam is conducted by the National Board of Examination.
     

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Topic 8: Atlantic Declaration

Context: The United States and Britain announced a new strategic pact as their leaders rededicated the “special relationship” to counter Russia, China and economic instability.

Key details:

• The Atlantic Declaration is for a Twenty-First Century U.S.-UK Economic Partnership.
• The Atlantic Declaration and accompanying Action Plan form the basis of a new type of innovative partnership across the full spectrum of economic, technological, commercial and trade relations.
• It will constitute a new economic security framework covering ever-closer cooperation on critical and emerging technologies and stronger protective toolkit